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Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

Identifieur interne : 000715 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000714; suivant : 000716

Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment

Auteurs : Colin A. Russell [Royaume-Uni] ; Peter M. Kasson [États-Unis] ; Ruben O. Donis [États-Unis] ; Steven Riley [Royaume-Uni] ; John Dunbar [États-Unis] ; Andrew Rambaut [États-Unis] ; Jason Asher [États-Unis] ; Stephen Burke [États-Unis] ; C Todd Davis [États-Unis] ; Rebecca J. Garten [États-Unis] ; Sandrasegaram Gnanakaran [États-Unis] ; Simon I. Hay [Royaume-Uni] ; Sander Herfst [Pays-Bas] ; Nicola S. Lewis [Royaume-Uni] ; James O. Lloyd-Smith [États-Unis] ; Catherine A. Macken [États-Unis] ; Sebastian Maurer-Stroh [Singapour] ; Elizabeth Neuhaus [États-Unis] ; Colin R. Parrish [États-Unis] ; Kim M. Pepin [États-Unis] ; Samuel S. Shepard [États-Unis] ; David L. Smith [États-Unis] ; David L. Suarez [États-Unis] ; Susan C. Trock [États-Unis] ; Marc-Alain Widdowson [États-Unis] ; Dylan B. George [États-Unis] ; Marc Lipsitch [États-Unis] ; Jesse D. Bloom [États-Unis]

Source :

RBID : PMC:4199076

Abstract

Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001


Url:
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.03883
PubMed: 25321142
PubMed Central: 4199076


Affiliations:

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Le document en format XML

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<title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment</title>
<author>
<name sortKey="Russell, Colin A" sort="Russell, Colin A" uniqKey="Russell C" first="Colin A" last="Russell">Colin A. Russell</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff1">
<bold>Colin A Russell</bold>
<addr-line>Department of Veterinary Medicine</addr-line>
,
<institution>University of Cambridge</institution>
,
<addr-line>Cambridge</addr-line>
,
<country>United Kingdom</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Kasson, Peter M" sort="Kasson, Peter M" uniqKey="Kasson P" first="Peter M" last="Kasson">Peter M. Kasson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff2">
<bold>Peter M Kasson</bold>
<addr-line>Department of Biomedical Engineering</addr-line>
,
<institution>University of Virginia</institution>
,
<addr-line>Charlottesville</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Donis, Ruben O" sort="Donis, Ruben O" uniqKey="Donis R" first="Ruben O" last="Donis">Ruben O. Donis</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff3">
<bold>Ruben O Donis</bold>
<addr-line>Influenza Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,
<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Riley, Steven" sort="Riley, Steven" uniqKey="Riley S" first="Steven" last="Riley">Steven Riley</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff4">
<bold>Steven Riley</bold>
<addr-line>Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology</addr-line>
,
<institution>School of Public Health, Imperial College London</institution>
,
<addr-line>London</addr-line>
,
<country>United Kingdom</country>
;
<addr-line>Fogarty International Center</addr-line>
,
<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Bethesda</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Dunbar, John" sort="Dunbar, John" uniqKey="Dunbar J" first="John" last="Dunbar">John Dunbar</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff5">
<bold>John Dunbar</bold>
<addr-line>Bioscience Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Los Alamos National Laboratory</institution>
,
<addr-line>Los Alamos</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Rambaut, Andrew" sort="Rambaut, Andrew" uniqKey="Rambaut A" first="Andrew" last="Rambaut">Andrew Rambaut</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff6">
<bold>Andrew Rambaut</bold>
<addr-line>Fogarty International Center</addr-line>
,
<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Bethesda</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
;
<addr-line>Institute of Evolutionary Biology</addr-line>
,
<institution>University of Edinburgh</institution>
,
<addr-line>Edinburgh</addr-line>
,
<country>United Kingdom</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Asher, Jason" sort="Asher, Jason" uniqKey="Asher J" first="Jason" last="Asher">Jason Asher</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff7">
<bold>Jason Asher</bold>
<addr-line>Leidos contract support to the Division of Analytic Decision Support</addr-line>
,
<institution>Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Department of Health and Human Services</institution>
,
<addr-line>Washington</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Burke, Stephen" sort="Burke, Stephen" uniqKey="Burke S" first="Stephen" last="Burke">Stephen Burke</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff8">
<bold>Stephen Burke</bold>
<addr-line>Influenza Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,
<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Davis, C Todd" sort="Davis, C Todd" uniqKey="Davis C" first="C Todd" last="Davis">C Todd Davis</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff9">
<bold>C Todd Davis</bold>
<addr-line>Influenza Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,
<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Garten, Rebecca J" sort="Garten, Rebecca J" uniqKey="Garten R" first="Rebecca J" last="Garten">Rebecca J. Garten</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff10">
<bold>Rebecca J Garten</bold>
<addr-line>Influenza Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,
<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram" sort="Gnanakaran, Sandrasegaram" uniqKey="Gnanakaran S" first="Sandrasegaram" last="Gnanakaran">Sandrasegaram Gnanakaran</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff11">
<bold>Sandrasegaram Gnanakaran</bold>
<addr-line>Bioscience Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Los Alamos National Laboratory</institution>
,
<addr-line>Los Alamos</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Hay, Simon I" sort="Hay, Simon I" uniqKey="Hay S" first="Simon I" last="Hay">Simon I. Hay</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff12">
<bold>Simon I Hay</bold>
<addr-line>Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology</addr-line>
,
<institution>University of Oxford</institution>
,
<addr-line>Oxford</addr-line>
,
<country>United Kingdom</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Herfst, Sander" sort="Herfst, Sander" uniqKey="Herfst S" first="Sander" last="Herfst">Sander Herfst</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff13">
<bold>Sander Herfst</bold>
<addr-line>Department of Viroscience</addr-line>
,
<institution>Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center</institution>
,
<addr-line>Rotterdam</addr-line>
,
<country>Netherlands</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lewis, Nicola S" sort="Lewis, Nicola S" uniqKey="Lewis N" first="Nicola S" last="Lewis">Nicola S. Lewis</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff14">
<bold>Nicola S Lewis</bold>
<addr-line>Department of Zoology</addr-line>
,
<institution>University of Cambridge</institution>
,
<addr-line>Cambridge</addr-line>
,
<country>United Kingdom</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, James O" sort="Lloyd Smith, James O" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J" first="James O" last="Lloyd-Smith">James O. Lloyd-Smith</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff15">
<bold>James O Lloyd-Smith</bold>
<addr-line>Fogarty International Center</addr-line>
,
<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Bethesda</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
;
<addr-line>Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology</addr-line>
,
<institution>University of California, Los Angeles</institution>
,
<addr-line>Los Angeles</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Macken, Catherine A" sort="Macken, Catherine A" uniqKey="Macken C" first="Catherine A" last="Macken">Catherine A. Macken</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff16">
<bold>Catherine A Macken</bold>
<addr-line>Bioscience Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Los Alamos National Laboratory</institution>
,
<addr-line>Los Alamos</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Maurer Stroh, Sebastian" sort="Maurer Stroh, Sebastian" uniqKey="Maurer Stroh S" first="Sebastian" last="Maurer-Stroh">Sebastian Maurer-Stroh</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff17">
<bold>Sebastian Maurer-Stroh</bold>
<addr-line>Bioinformatics Institute</addr-line>
,
<institution>Agency for Science Technology and Research</institution>
,
<addr-line>Singapore</addr-line>
,
<country>Singapore</country>
;
<addr-line>National Public Health Laboratory, Communicable Diseases Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Ministry of Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Singapore</addr-line>
,
<country>Singapore</country>
;
<addr-line>School of Biological Sciences</addr-line>
,
<institution>Nanyang Technological University</institution>
,
<addr-line>Singapore</addr-line>
,
<country>Singapore</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">Singapour</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Neuhaus, Elizabeth" sort="Neuhaus, Elizabeth" uniqKey="Neuhaus E" first="Elizabeth" last="Neuhaus">Elizabeth Neuhaus</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff18">
<bold>Elizabeth Neuhaus</bold>
<addr-line>Influenza Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,
<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Parrish, Colin R" sort="Parrish, Colin R" uniqKey="Parrish C" first="Colin R" last="Parrish">Colin R. Parrish</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff19">
<bold>Colin R Parrish</bold>
<addr-line>James A Baker Institute</addr-line>
,
<institution>College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University</institution>
,
<addr-line>Ithaca</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Pepin, Kim M" sort="Pepin, Kim M" uniqKey="Pepin K" first="Kim M" last="Pepin">Kim M. Pepin</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff20">
<bold>Kim M Pepin</bold>
<addr-line>Fogarty International Center</addr-line>
,
<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Bethesda</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
;
<addr-line>National Wildlife Research Center</addr-line>
,
<institution>United States Department of Agriculture</institution>
,
<addr-line>Fort Collins</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Shepard, Samuel S" sort="Shepard, Samuel S" uniqKey="Shepard S" first="Samuel S" last="Shepard">Samuel S. Shepard</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff21">
<bold>Samuel S Shepard</bold>
<addr-line>Influenza Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,
<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Smith, David L" sort="Smith, David L" uniqKey="Smith D" first="David L" last="Smith">David L. Smith</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff22">
<bold>David L Smith</bold>
<addr-line>Fogarty International Center</addr-line>
,
<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Bethesda</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
;
<addr-line>Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology</addr-line>
,
<institution>University of Oxford</institution>
,
<addr-line>Oxford</addr-line>
,
<country>United Kingdom</country>
;
<institution>Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine</institution>
,
<addr-line>Rockville</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Suarez, David L" sort="Suarez, David L" uniqKey="Suarez D" first="David L" last="Suarez">David L. Suarez</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff23">
<bold>David L Suarez</bold>
<addr-line>Exotic and Emerging Avian Viral Diseases Research Unit, Southeast Poultry Research Laboratories</addr-line>
,
<institution>United States Department of Agriculture</institution>
,
<addr-line>Athens</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Trock, Susan C" sort="Trock, Susan C" uniqKey="Trock S" first="Susan C" last="Trock">Susan C. Trock</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff24">
<bold>Susan C Trock</bold>
<addr-line>Influenza Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,
<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Widdowson, Marc Alain" sort="Widdowson, Marc Alain" uniqKey="Widdowson M" first="Marc-Alain" last="Widdowson">Marc-Alain Widdowson</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff25">
<bold>Marc-Alain Widdowson</bold>
<addr-line>Influenza Division</addr-line>
,
<institution>Centers for Disease Control and Prevention</institution>
,
<addr-line>Atlanta</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="George, Dylan B" sort="George, Dylan B" uniqKey="George D" first="Dylan B" last="George">Dylan B. George</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff26">
<bold>Dylan B George</bold>
<addr-line>Fogarty International Center</addr-line>
,
<institution>National Institutes of Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Bethesda</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
;
<addr-line>Division of Analytic Decision Support, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority</addr-line>
,
<institution>Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services</institution>
,
<addr-line>Washington, DC</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Lipsitch, Marc" sort="Lipsitch, Marc" uniqKey="Lipsitch M" first="Marc" last="Lipsitch">Marc Lipsitch</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff27">
<bold>Marc Lipsitch</bold>
<addr-line>Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology</addr-line>
,
<institution>Harvard School of Public Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Boston</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
;
<addr-line>Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases</addr-line>
,
<institution>Harvard School of Public Health</institution>
,
<addr-line>Boston</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author>
<name sortKey="Bloom, Jesse D" sort="Bloom, Jesse D" uniqKey="Bloom J" first="Jesse D" last="Bloom">Jesse D. Bloom</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1">
<nlm:aff id="aff28">
<bold>Jesse D Bloom</bold>
<addr-line>Division of Basic Sciences</addr-line>
,
<institution>Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center</institution>
,
<addr-line>Seattle</addr-line>
,
<country>United States</country>
</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country>
<wicri:regionArea># see nlm:aff country strict</wicri:regionArea>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series>
<title level="j">eLife</title>
<idno type="eISSN">2050-084X</idno>
<imprint>
<date when="2014">2014</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc>
<textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front>
<div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">
<p>Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.</p>
<p>
<bold>DOI:</bold>
<ext-link ext-link-type="doi" xlink:href="10.7554/eLife.03883.001">http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.03883.001</ext-link>
</p>
</div>
</front>
<back>
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